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Week 4 — Inference



Joint and Conditional Probability

Continuous Probability

Week 4 Quiz

Submit the Week 4 quiz by Monday night.



Sampling and the Data Generation Process



Confidence in Confidence

Read Having confidence in confidence intervals by Ellie Murray.

The Bootstrap

Testing Hypotheses


Read XKCD #882: Significant.

This is called p-hacking: running tests until we find one that is significant.

Penguin Inference

The Penguin Inference notebook shows confidence intervals and hypothesis tests on the penguin data.

Further Reading

If you want to dive more deeply into probability theory, Michael Betancourt's case studies are rather mathematically dense but quite good:

For a book:

Extra Reading (Philosophy)

  • Abandon Statistical Significance, by McShane, Gal, Gelman, Robert, and Tackett. While the title is provocative, this article is not advocating against computing statistical significance measures. It advocates using them as one piece of evidence among many, instead of as an end-of-the-story bright-line rule for establishing discovery.

  • Interpretations of Probability. I primarily operate from somewhere in the subjective school.

Assignment 2

Assignment 2 is due on September 27.